Predicted grades: what they are, and what to do if yours are low

When you apply through UCAS, your school or college adds a predicted grade for every qualification you haven’t finished yet. Universities use them to decide whether to make you an offer, months before you sit your exams.

If your predictions are lower than you hoped, it can feel like the door has closed. It hasn’t. This guide explains how predicted grades work, what you can still change, and how to apply well with the grades you’ve got.

What a predicted grade is

UCAS describes a predicted grade as the grade your school or college thinks you’re likely to get if things go well. It’s a professional judgement, not a promise and not a target.

• Who sets them: your subject teachers, usually checked by whoever runs UCAS applications at your school.
• What they’re based on: mostly evidence, such as mock exams, class tests, coursework and how you’ve been progressing. UCAS asks schools to make them achievable and to base them on real performance.
• What they’re not based on: the grades your chosen universities ask for. UCAS’s guidance says predictions should be set without looking at where you’re applying, so asking for an A “because Leeds wants AAB” won’t work.
• When you get them: every school is different. Many share them at the end of Year 12 or early in Year 13. Ask your tutor if you haven’t seen yours.

How universities use them

Universities read your predicted grades alongside your GCSEs, personal statement and reference. Each one uses them differently, but broadly:

• If your predictions are at or above the typical offer, you’re in the running.
• If they’re a grade or so below, some universities will still make you an offer, especially if the rest of your application is strong. Others won’t.
• If they’re well below, an offer is unlikely for that course, and that choice may be better used elsewhere.

Most offers are conditional: you get the place if you achieve certain grades in the summer. The offer is usually the course’s typical offer, not your predicted grades.

Predictions are often generous

If you’re worried yours are low, it may help to know that most predictions turn out to be higher than the grades students actually get.

• One study of UCAS applicants found only 16% had their best three A-levels predicted exactly right. About 75% were over-predicted and just 8% under-predicted.
• UCAS says the gap has widened over time. In 2025, around half of UK 18-year-olds were predicted AAA or better, but only 26% of accepted applicants actually got AAA or better.

So universities are used to seeing predictions that are a bit optimistic, and they know grades often come in lower. A sensible prediction isn’t a disadvantage.

If you think a prediction is wrong

You can usually ask for a prediction to be looked at again, but there’s a window, and it closes when your application is sent.

1. Check the deadline. Schools set their own internal UCAS deadlines, often in November or early December, well before the 13 January UCAS deadline. After that, predictions are normally final.
2. Talk to your subject teacher first. Ask how the grade was decided and what would change it.
3. Bring evidence. Recent marked work, a better mock result or a clear upward trend helps. “I need an A for my offer” doesn’t.
4. Mention anything that affected you. If illness, caring responsibilities or something at home disrupted your studies, tell your tutor. Your referee can explain this in your reference, so universities see the context.
5. Accept the answer. The final decision is the school’s. Teachers who over-predict can leave a student holding offers they can’t meet in August, which is worse than a lower offer you can.

If your predictions are lower than you hoped

Step 1: Choose courses that fit the grades you have

This matters more than anything else. Build your five choices around your predicted grades, not the grades you wish you had:

• one or two ambitious choices a grade or so above your predictions
• two realistic choices that match them
• at least one safer choice below them, at a university you’d genuinely be happy to go to

Our UCAS choices planner labels each saved course as ambitious, realistic or safer once you add your predicted grades. On every subject page, the Your fit column and the fits my grades filter do the same for the whole table. There’s more on getting the mix right in how to pick your 5 UCAS choices.

Step 2: Look past the headline offer

The typical offer on a course page isn’t always the grade people get in with. UCAS’s course search now shows historical entry grades: the grades students actually held when they were accepted, plus each course’s offer rate. UCAS research has found that nearly half of applicants were admitted with grades below the published entry requirements. That doesn’t mean you’ll get in with lower grades, but it’s worth checking before you rule a course out.

Step 3: Check if you qualify for a contextual offer

Many universities make contextual offers, often one or two grades below the typical offer, to students whose circumstances may have held back their grades. Common reasons include living in an area where few people go to university, having been in care, being a young carer, getting free school meals, or being the first in your family to go to university. Each university sets its own rules, and not all of them make contextual offers.

You usually don’t need to apply separately. Fill in the questions about your circumstances on the UCAS form fully and honestly, and check each university’s contextual offers page. The Sutton Trust’s contextual offers tool covers many UK universities in one place.

Step 4: Make the rest of your application strong

When predictions are borderline, the rest of your application carries more weight. Put real effort into your personal statement: show what you’ve done to explore the subject, not just that you like it.

Step 5: Remember the other routes

• Foundation years add a year at the start of a degree and usually ask for lower grades.
• Applying after your results is an option: you can take a year out and apply the following autumn with real grades, or use Clearing in the summer.
• UCAS Extra (from late February) lets you add another choice if you end up with no offers.

If you beat your predicted grades

Sometimes it goes the other way, and you get better grades than predicted. UCAS used to run a scheme called Adjustment for this, but it ended in 2022.

Now, if your firm choice confirms your place and you’d rather go somewhere else, you can release yourself into Clearing with the Decline my place button in UCAS Hub. Be careful: declining cancels your place straight away and you can’t get it back. Only do it after you’ve spoken to the new university and they’ve confirmed they’ll offer you a place, and ideally after talking it through with your school.

Most students who beat their predictions are happy to stay where they are. It’s worth checking how your firm choice compares on our subject rankings before you decide anything on results day.

The key points

• Predicted grades are your school’s best estimate if things go well. Most turn out to be generous.
• If you think one is wrong, talk to your teacher before your school’s internal UCAS deadline, with evidence.
• Choose your five courses around the grades you’re predicted, with at least one safer choice.
• Check historical entry grades and contextual offers before ruling a course out.
• Always check each university’s own course page for the real entry requirements.

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